What Is The Weather Like In Florida In November

TODAY:

It was a breezy to windy Saturday with peak wind gusts over the area (from the northwest) at 25-38 mph.  Highs reached 36-42. This, after lows this morning of 24-30.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW:

Stratocumulus clouds diminish tonight, but some patches to areas of high & mid level clouds will pass as warm front approaches.  Lows of 21-27 are expected with a northwest to west breeze.

We should turn mostly cloudy to cloudy for part of Monday with mostly virga.  It is possible that we get a few brief light snow/sleet/rain showers to the ground if we can indeed saturate the low levels.  Winds should turn to the southwest at 15-30 mph with highs at 39-46.

MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY NIGHT:

Wind should turn to the northwest at 15-30 mph with low clouds rolling in from the northwest Monday evening-night.  Lows of 28-32 are expected.

It looks like considerable low cloudiness (stratus & stratocumulus) on Tuesday with some sun.  Highs of 41-47 are expected.

The low clouds will be replaced by mid-level clouds Tuesday night with wind turning back to the west, then southwest with lows 29-33.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

As for Wednesday, considerable mid-level cloudiness will be around, but winds will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph, so highs will run 49-55, followed by lows of only 40-45 Wednesday night, then rising to 45-50 (with mostly cloudy skies).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:

Thursday & Friday look nice with breezy to windy conditions from the south & southwest with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.

Lots of sunshine will occur on both days.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:

Dry cold front will pass Friday night or Saturday morning, leading to cooler weather Saturday as wind turns to the northwest at 15-30 mph.  Temperatures will be in the 40s to 50 Saturday late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:

Front will begin to move back northward as a warm front, followed by approaching cold front.  This all spells a 2-3 rounds of rainfall for Sunday-Sunday night.  A few storms are even possible as strong southerly winds bring in the warmth.  Highs of 60-65 are possible Sunday afternoon.

In terms of severe weather risk, severe weather could occur from Texas to southern Illinois to Alabama.  SLIGHT (Level 2 of 5 or scattered severe) to possibly ENHANCED parameters set up well southwest of our area with MARGINAL (Level 1 or 5 or isolated severe) parameters as far north as southern Illinois.  Eastern Texas to southwestern Mississippi appears to have the higher risk for severe weather.

Here, as cold air rushes in, it is not out of the question that we tank from 60-65 to 33-38 quickly with some rain ending briefly as rain/snow or snow.  It looks highly in-significant at the moment, however.

Northwest winds may gust up to 45 mph just behind the cold front as the colder air rushes in.

We have the potential to end up with 0.75-1.15" this storm system.

The following Monday should become dry & tranquil with the strong winds becoming light.  With surface high overhead, it looks mostly sunny to sunny with highs in the 30s & 40s & lows in the 20s to 30.

DECEMBER 7-8:

Warm front pushes back northeastward Tuesday & we looks to be bathed in warmth December 7-8.  60-65 is possible with strong southerly winds to 40 mph.

Severe weather is possible from Texas to Indiana to Alabama.  This could be a substantial to big outbreak with EHNANCED (Level 3 of 5) to MODERATE (Level 4 of 5) parameters in the South with SLIGHT to the Lower Ohio Valley & MARGINAL RISK parameters to our area.  Potential is there for multiple tornadoes (some strong) in the South.

Here, we see showers & some storms, then likely a squall line of rain/storms.  If higher buoyancy or CAPE can be realized, then higher parameters than MARGINAL could evolve.  We will see, but typically you see these set-ups coming out of a Phase 6 MJO, going rapidly to a Phase 7, then 8 to 1.  +NAO, +AO will also become negative.  This set-up often occurs then as well in the cool-season.

1-1.75" of rainfall is possible here.

Rain many end as icy mix or snow here.we

DECEMBER 9 & BEYOND:

Sudden change follows with much colder weather with highs in the 20s & lows in the teens (some single digits if we lay down some minor snowfall) with some snow showers.

This wave of cold followed Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in early November.  When the stratosphere warms, especially nearer to the North Pole, cold waves, often major ones, follow.

The thing we have been talking about trying to fight against such sustained cold in mid-December is the EPO, which stays +.  That will tend to keep the worst of the cold in the northern Plains, where -25 is possible.

There are signs the +EPO will exude its influence by drying things out & warming up back up to the 40s in mid-December after that particular cold snap, despite all other indication of significant cold.

+EPO mean strong Pacific jet, which baths much of the Plains & West to Midwest in milder air.  -NAO with +EPO tends to bring dry, milder stretch here, but carves trough in the Northeast.  So, the Northeast U.S. may see longer-duration cold.  It also tends to bring clippers that track farther north & northeast of our area.  It does bring cool shots in here, but the +EPO prevents them from being really cold shots.  It also keeps the main snow band with the clippers well north & northeast of our area.

Check out the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in early December, though!  Now, if we are going to get historic cold, you really want it centered more over the North Pole, but this is still impressive.  This warming weakens & loosens the Polar Vortex to allow Arctic air to plunge.

This spells BIG COLD in late December to early January with many nights below 0 & potentially to -20 in some places.  I do expected accumulating snows in late December through early January, as well.

Now last year in January we saw a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that led to the historic Plains to Texas Polar Vortex in February.  Here, we were spared the worst of the cold due to NAO & AO that was not as - & the strong La Nina ridge & bit of warmer & wetter MJO phase in the Southeast propping it up (propping up the cold to the Plains that is & not letting it completely unleash southeastward).  That propping kept the snow storm track in our area (with a wetter MJO phase), however & led to the snowiest month since the 2013-14 winter & the snowiest February since 2014 (2013-14 was historic for snowfall with snowiest October-April snow season since 1884-85 at Purdue).

In this case, the warming it not as strong as last January in the Arctic, but still impressive.  There does not look to be quite the duration of Southeast ridge propping & the NAO & AO is trending more -, so the cold could go much farther east & south this go around with 32 line to central Florida.

So, I am expecting a couple of snow events from a Colorado or Texas Panhandle system in the Phase 7 in late December, then Phase 8 clipper pattern with peak in the cold in early January.

Once the cold supply is bled, we should go back to wet, mild, thaw weather with above normal rainfall & ice jam & flooding risk.  Some storms are even possible with a day or two of near/record warmth.  This mild pattern should occur in late, late January & last to early February.

Analog points to a switch back to cold & snowy for a while in February, then warm & dry very late February & well into March.  However, wet wetter should be followed by potential late season snow & cold in late March.  I am basing that off of similarities to 1984, 1996 in the pattern.

This is how it all appears to the best of my ability right now.  As always, we keep monitoring over & over to tweak the forecast.  Like I always say, there are lots & lots of influential players on the court & we are determining who is the most dominant player, most dominant team & just who wins the NCAA tournament (the winter team that dominates the weather).  You always, always analyze, but there can be a dark horse that emerges (like our record wet October or the magnitude of the Polar Vortex event in the central U.S. last February).

Source : https://www.wlfi.com/content/news/November-28-530PM-Weather-Forecast-Update-575824331.html

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Lets hope our Thanksgiving turkey wont be like the TC weather that day -- cool and dry

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Lets hope our Thanksgiving turkey wont be like the TC weather that day -- cool and dry

Equilibrium/Sustainability — Presented by Southern Company — Replacing the blood diamond of batteries

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Equilibrium/Sustainability — Presented by Southern Company — Replacing the blood diamond of batteries